Blackjack Odds – Probability and Payouts Explained

Blackjack is one of the world’s most popular casino games at both physical and online casinos.
This guide will introduce you to getting the most out of your blackjack sessions by understanding blackjack odds, probability, and house edge.
What are Blackjack Odds?
Blackjack odds indicate a player’s chances of winning a bet and how much they stand to win with their wagers.
Understanding blackjack odds, how they work, and how to leverage them to your favor not only improves your appreciation of the game but helps you boost your chances of winning.
The Best Blackjack Odds

Blackjack is a game of skill and strategy much as it is a game of luck. In order to get the best blackjack odds, follow these recommendations:
- Learn basic blackjack strategy. Basic blackjack strategy is a set of mathematically-based decisions that indicate when you should hit, stand, double down, or split based on your hand and the dealer’s upcard. You can learn more about basic blackjack strategy in our guide. You can keep our blackjack odds card in your pocket and refer to it.
- Learn card counting (optional/risky). The most common advantage play in blackjack is card counting. Mastering the art of counting cards in blackjack can give you a 1-2% advantage. However, card counting only works in physical casinos. Standard online blackjack games shuffle the cards after every hand, nullifying card counting.
- Play a blackjack game with better odds. Certain blackjack variants, depending on availability, could offer players better odds. Refer to the following table to see the house edge associated with blackjack game variants.
Blackjack Variant | Odds | House Edge |
American/Classic Blackjack | 3:2 | 0.61% |
European Blackjack | 3:2 | 0.39% |
Switch Blackjack | 1:1 | 0.58% |
Face Up 21 | 1:1 | 0.85% |
Free bet | 3:2 | 1% |
Online Video Blackjack | 1:1 or 3:2 | 0.5% or 2% |
Online Live Dealer Blackjack | 3:2 | 0.49% or 0.72% |
Having a good understanding of blackjack odds—and blackjack probability—helps players reduce the blackjack house edge while boosting return-to-player and player’s odds. In short, you can make more money by learning blackjack odds.
Blackjack Odds Table
While blackjack has an element of strategy and skill to help improve your odds of winning, it is still largely a game of chance.
There is no method of telling which cards will be dealt. While the dealer will always have the upper hand by virtue of being the last to act, players can exploit situations to improve their odds of winning and RTP. Refer to the following blackjack odds table below to determine your odds of busting out if you choose to hit or stand with your first two cards.
Player Hand Value (first 2 cards) | Probability of Busting |
11 and below | 0% |
12 | 31% |
13 | 39% |
14 | 56% |
15 | 58% |
16 | 62% |
17 | 69% |
18 | 77% |
19 | 85% |
20 | 92% |
21 | 100% |
Blackjack Odds Table for Dealers
What advantage does the dealer have in blackjack? All blackjack games in physical and online casinos implement a house edge. That means the dealer always holds an advantage and therefore better odds of winning blackjack than players. Moreover, the dealer always acts last, allowing them to base their decisions on your hand value.
However, house rules for the blackjack game in question also affect the dealer’s blackjack odds. Refer to the following table showing the probability of the dealer going bust—and you winning—depending on the dealer’s face-up card.
Dealer’s face-up card | Probability of busting when standing on 17 | Probability of busting when hitting on 17 |
Ace | 17% | 20% |
2 | 35% | 26% |
3 | 37% | 38% |
4 | 40% | 40% |
5 | 42% | 42% |
6 | 42% | 44% |
7 | 26% | 26% |
8 | 24% | 24% |
9 | 23% | 23% |
10 | 23% | 23% |
Odds of Winning in Blackjack

Likewise, the odds of a player winning a game of blackjack depend on house rules. For single-deck blackjack games, your odds of winning at blackjack can be 42.22%. Meanwhile, the dealer’s odds of winning stand at 49.10%. The remaining 8.48% are the odds of a blackjack game ending in a push (a draw).
Ultimately, your odds of winning in blackjack can vary depending on the blackjack game variant you choose to play, the house rules applied, and how you play the game. For instance, if you place random wagers instead of following the basic blackjack strategy, your odds of winning drastically shorten.
Probability of getting a Blackjack
Single-deck blackjack gives players the probability of being dealt blackjack or a 21 on their first 2 cards sits at 4.83%.
That puts your chances of hitting blackjack roughly once in every 20 hands. Playing a double-deck blackjack game, however, reduces your probability of landing blackjack. Blackjack games featuring six decks, for instance, give you a chance to hit blackjack at a 4.75% clip.
Insurance
Insurance allows you to protect half of your stake if the dealer shows an Ace and gets blackjack. In essence, insurance is a wager on the dealer holding blackjack. If the dealer does have blackjack, insurance bets pay 2:1.
However, insurance bets aren’t recommended given the high house edge it gives the dealer (8.5%).
Surrender
Surrender is an optional rule in blackjack that enables you to cede half your bet after being dealt your first two cards with the dealer’s up card showing. If you suspect that your odds of winning aren’t good enough, the casino may allow you to surrender and minimize your losses.
- Early surrender allows you to forfeit your hand and lose half your wager. However, casinos seldom offer this option.
- Late surrender allows you to forfeit after the dealer checks for blackjack, and is a standard option at casinos. However, it offers very little benefit, with just a 0.05% to 0.1% reduction in house edge.
Split
Some casinos offer players the option to split their first two cards into two separate hands and wager a second stake on their “new” hand.
This strategy could work to your advantage if the dealer is showing a poor hand and you are dealt Aces or 10s. The odds and probability of landing blackjack remain the same, as well as the potential payouts.
Double Down
Doubling down in blackjack means doubling your wager in the middle of a blackjack game. However, doubling down means you receive only one more card—no further hits are allowed. If you hit, you win double your stake.
However, doubling down can be risky especially if you get dealt a low card, which could end up with you losing double your initial stake.
Number of Decks Used
The number of decks used in a blackjack game ranges between one to eight. While the blackjack odds remain the same regardless of the number of decks, the probability of landing blackjack sss*skew slightly the more decks are used.
The probability of winning is unaffected, but the probability of landing blackjack changes. The more decks used, the higher the house edge becomes.
Video Blackjack and Live Dealer Blackjack
Video blackjack is a video game version of blackjack played against a computer. Video blackjack typically offers odds of winning a blackjack hand at 0.5% to 2% house edge and often uses a single deck, but sometimes lacks other betting options.
Live dealer blackjack games enable players to interact as though they were playing at a physical establishment through an online video stream hosted by a live dealer. Live dealer blackjack generally offers a 0.49% to 0.72% house edge.
5 Card Charlie
The 5-Card Charlie rule refers to the scenario where the croupier deals you 5 cards without busting out.
Whenever this happens in casinos where the 5-Card Charlie rule is in vigor, it’s an automatic win for the player even if they have a low hand value. This provides a 1.46% house edge.
Blackjack Switch
In blackjack switch variants, players need to make two equal wagers and are allowed to trade cards to create the best hand possible.
However, a dealer 22 results in a push against player totals of 21 or less, and landing blackjack pays even money as opposed to the customary 3:2 or 6:5 odds. A player’s blackjack still beats a dealer 22.
No Hole Card
No Hole Card Blackjack is a variant where the dealer isn’t dealt a hole (or face-down) card at the start of the game. Instead, the dealer only deals their second card once the players’ hands have been dealt. This means the dealer cannot check for blackjack early on.
Blackjack Payouts

In most blackjack variants, casinos will pay out either 3:2 or 6:5 on players hitting blackjack on their first two cards. Low-limit tables and some video blackjack games, on the other hand, may pay at a 1:1 clip on blackjack, increasing the house edge even further.
Blackjack Payout for Side Bets
Side bets are optional bets placed next to the main bet on a blackjack table. They involve guessing the card or multiple cards a player or dealer will receive in a round. It must be noted that side bets simply involve players guessing what cards a player or a dealer are dealt.
The following is a table of typical blackjack payouts for the most common side bets in blackjack.
Blackjack Side Bet | Payout |
Insurance | 2:1 |
Perfect pair (Mixed) | 5:1 |
Perfect pair (Coloured) | 10:1 |
Perfect pair (Perfect) | 30:1 |
21 + 3 (Flush) | 5:1 |
21 + 3 (Straight) | 10:1 |
21 + 3 (Three of a Kind) | 30:1 |
21 + 3 (Straight Flush) | 40:1 |
21 + 3 (Suited Tips) | 100:1 |
Royal Match (Easy) | 5:2 or 5:1 |
Royal Match (Royal) | 10-to-25:1 |
Over/Under 13 | 1:1 |
Super Sevens (Single) | 3:1 |
Super Sevens (Pair) | 50:1 |
Super Sevens (Set) | 500:1 |
Super Sevens (Suited Set) | 5000:1 |
Lucky Ladies (Q of hearts/Dealer BJ) | 1000:1 |
Lucky Ladies (Q of hearts) | 200:1 |
Lucky Ladies (Matching) | 25:1 |
Lucky Ladies (Suited) | 20:1 |
Lucky Ladies (Any) | 4:1 |
Perfect Pairs
Perfect pairs bets are a side bet made before any other cards are dealt that pays out if you have two of the same cards of the same suit, paying out at up to 30:1 odds.
Royal Match
Royal Match is a side bet that pays out if the player is dealt a King and Queen in suit for their first two cards.
Super Sevens
Super Sevens are a side bet based on the first three cards dealt to a player. If the first card dealt is a 7, the player wins the side bet. The payouts increase if the player lands two or three consecutive 7s and even more if all cards are suited.
Over/Under 13
Over/Under 13 is a side bet available on certain blackjack tables offering the wager. In these games, players can wager that their first two cards will have a total over or under 13.
Lucky Ladies
Lucky Ladies is a popular blackjack side bet on two to eight-card variants that pays anywhere from 4:1 to 1000:1 on any player being dealt a 20-point hand. 20-point hands involving two queens of hearts, for instance, pay out as much as 200:1.
21 + 3
21 + 3 bets enable players to bet on the hand value of the dealer’s up card and the first two cards the players are dealt. If the three cards form a flush, straight, three-of-a-kind or straight flush, the player wins anywhere from 5:1 to 100:1.
Early Payouts
Some live dealer blackjack games may offer an “early payout” option. This tactic means players can end the hand early and receive a payout based on the dealer’s face-up card and their cards without seeing it to the end. While early payouts don’t always pay out the initial wager (often paying lower), players can save a part of their initial wager if they opt to receive an early payout.
Comparing Blackjack Odds vs Other Casino Games
Blackjack is popular because of its low house edge and the flexibility it offers players, not to mention the fact that you play only against the dealer and can improve odds by sticking to basic blackjack strategy. But how do blackjack odds stack up against other casino games?
Baccarat Odds
Baccarat involves two main betting options depending on which hand the player thinks will win: the Player or the Banker. Betting on the Banker pays out at a 0.95:1 clip, with most casinos taking a 5% vig on winning bets, while a Player win pays out at a 1:1 rate.
Betting on the Banker offers the lowest possible house edge in the game with 1.06%. Player bets have a slightly higher house edge at 1.24%. The slight difference is tied to the rules of dealing cards, but this doesn’t affect players since there are no other decisions to make after the wager is placed.
Poker (Texas Hold’Em) Odds
Texas Hold’Em is a popular casino adaptation of poker where players play against the dealer. Although the house edge is at a robust 2.2% on the initial ante bet, the following bets could give players a lower house edge given the right strategy. As a result, this game is popular with experienced players who strategize their bets and play game theory optimized hands.
Craps Odds
Craps is among the most popular games in both physical casinos and online casinos that can offer some of the best odds. The best bet in blackjack terms of house edge is the Don’t Pass bet with just 1.36%. On the other hand, the Pass Line bet offers a 1.41% house edge.
Roulette Odds (Single and Double Zero)
Double Zero Roulette (American roulette)is one of the games to avoid in terms of house edge. American roulette offers a ridiculously high house edge of 5.26%. Single Zero Roulette (European roulette), meanwhile, offers a lower house edge at 2.70%.
Slots Odds
Slots have the worst odds for players. Slots often have a high house edge between 5% to over 20% depending on the machine or the game, giving the casino a tremendous advantage. Their main draw is their large jackpots—but be forewarned, the odds are very low for players looking to hit them.
Conclusion – The Popularity of Blackjack
Blackjack has retained its appeal over the years because of the simplicity of the game. While blackjack has a few nuances depending on the variant played, the primary aim of the game is to simply come as close to 21 without busting out.
This combination of luck, skill, and strategy makes blackjack one of the most alluring games around. There’s literally no reason not to give it a shot.
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- Blackjack dealing explained
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- How to win blackjack tournaments?
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Blackjack Odds Frequently Asked Questions
What are the odds of winning blackjack?
In a single-deck blackjack game with optimal application of basic blackjack strategy, the odds of winning blackjack are at 42.22%. The dealer’s odds, meanwhile, sit at 49.1%. A tie outcome has odds of 8.48%, leading to the game ending in a push with all bets returned.
Is blackjack based more on luck or skill?
While winning at blackjack is still largely based on the luck of the draw, it also features a good level of skill and strategy with plenty of significant decisions on boosting hand value and using tactics to beat the dealer. Playing blackjack with the basic blackjack strategy reduces the house edge to a paltry 0.5%.
Is blackjack the best game to play in a casino?
Blackjack is one of the oldest casino games and also one of the best games to play in a physical or online casino as far as house odds blackjack are concerned. Its low house edge of 0.5% when using basic blackjack strategy gives strategy-based players a superior chance of winning compared to other games.
What is the best payout in blackjack?
The best payout in blackjack is hitting a blackjack, where casinos typically pay out 3:2. However, some casinos and video blackjack games may pay out 6:5 or even money depending on the variant. While blackjack offers side bets paying out as much as 1000:1, such bets aren’t recommended due to their insanely high house edge.
How do I increase the odds of winning in blackjack?
The basic foundation of increasing your odds of winning in blackjack is mastering basic strategy. Another way to increase your chances of winning is to find a casino with house rules that tilt the edge to your favor. This includes single-deck blackjack tables, which allow experienced players to count cards and improve the odds of basic strategy play, and a table where the dealer stands on a soft 17.